Global Market Divergence Intensifies: US Stocks Hit New Highs vs. Economic Data Battles, Commodities Suffer Heavy Losses
Introduction
On June 24, 2024, global financial markets showed a significant divergence pattern. The three major US stock indices moved in different directions: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, while the tech-dominated Nasdaq continued its correction. Meanwhile, European stocks were mixed, and commodity markets suffered a heavy blow, with international oil prices and precious metals falling sharply. These market moves reveal complex and profound divergences and games among sectors and asset classes amid the current global economic recovery.
US Stock Divergence: Traditional Industries vs. Tech Stocks - Ice and Fire
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 182.06 points to 51,848.9, up 0.35%, refreshing its all-time closing record. This performance demonstrates the resilience of traditional industrial and financial sectors, with market capital shifting from high-valuation tech stocks to value assets. However, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,358.22, and the Nasdaq Composite Index expanded its decline to 0.43%, closing at 25,476.64. Tech stock weakness was mainly due to continued corrections in the chip sector: Western Digital and Seagate fell more than 4%, Qualcomm dropped over 3%, SanDisk lost over 2%, ARM and NXP fell more than 1%, and Nvidia also declined 0.56%. Hertz Rental Car's stock plummeted 41% in a single day, its biggest drop since its US IPO, reflecting a severe market confidence crisis for some individual stocks.
Micron Technology's Stunning Earnings: A Glimmer of Hope for the Chip Industry
Against the backdrop of broad tech stock pressure, Micron Technology's earnings report became a market highlight. Q3 fiscal data showed adjusted revenue of $41.46 billion, far exceeding $9.30 billion a year ago and significantly above analyst expectations of $35.69 billion; adjusted operating income of $33.68 billion vs. $2.49 billion a year ago; adjusted EPS of $25.11 vs. $1.91 a year ago, far above expected $20.49. More excitingly, Micron's Q4 outlook also exceeded expectations: expected revenue of $49-51 billion, far above market expectations of $43.24 billion; adjusted EPS expected at $30-32, vs. market expectation of $25.31. Driven by this good news, Micron's after-hours stock once surged over 16%, leading chip stocks to rise across the board after hours. This strong performance indicates that despite short-term market volatility, the chip industry's fundamentals remain healthy, with AI and storage demand driving structural growth.
Chinese Stocks and European Stocks: Internal Divergence in Regional Markets
The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.77%, with popular Chinese stocks showing divergence. United Microelectronics rose over 6%, ASE Technology gained nearly 4%, while NetEase Youdao fell nearly 9%, and Alibaba dropped over 2%. The three major European indices were also mixed: the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.31% to 10,461.63, the French CAC 40 rose 0.54% to 8,385.49, and the German DAX fell 0.62% to 24,740.36. Differences in policy paths between the ECB and the Fed, along with geopolitical uncertainty, continued to disrupt European markets.
Commodities Suffer "Black Monday": Oil and Precious Metals Fall Together
Commodity markets experienced significant selling pressure on the day. International oil prices dropped sharply: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures for the front-month continuous contract fell $3.34 to $69.87 per barrel, a decline of 4.56%, breaking below the $70 mark. Precious metals markets were equally bleak: COMEX gold futures fell $133, or 3.21%, to $4,016.4 per ounce; spot gold fell $110.9 to $3,999.21 per ounce, losing the $4,000 level. COMEX silver futures fell even more dramatically, down 7.39% to $57.485 per ounce, with spot silver also down 6.75%. Market consensus attributes the systemic sell-off to hawkish Fed comments pushing up the dollar index, coupled with concerns about slowing global demand.
Conclusion
The global financial markets on June 24 fully reflect the high complexity of the current macro environment. On one hand, traditional US economic sectors remain resilient, with the Dow hitting a record high, demonstrating the strength of the real economy. On the other hand, signs such as valuation pressure in tech stocks, commodity crashes, and European market divergence warn investors to be alert to the combined risks of slowing growth and tightening liquidity. While Micron's stellar earnings may inject a shot in the arm for the chip industry, the overall market will continue to seek a new balance among inflation stickiness, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical risks. Investors should remain prudent and focus on quality targets that combine fundamental improvement with reasonable valuations.
